FUNDAMENTAL
ANALYSIS AS A BASIC FOR DICISION TO INVEST IN PT.
PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA, Tbk.
BUSINESS ENGLISH PAPER 2
Name : Ilham Ubaidillah
ID : 16209580
Class : 4EA01
Major : Management
 |
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS
GUNADARMA UNIVERSITY
DEPOK
2013
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background
Development investment
in financial assets lately been experiencing rapid growth in Indonesia. It is
marked with the number of transactions that the company went public, investors,
and other capital market participants continue to increase.
One form of investment as investors began to demand individual is investing
through the stock exchange. Investors usually prefer to buy shares of companies
that go public, go public because the company's stock as an investment commodity
belonging to promising high returns but also have a high risk for stocks with
characteristics known High Risk-High Return, meaning that stocks are securities
that provide high profit opportunities , but also potentially high risk, but
many investors continue to invest in shares because of the various benefits
that it provides, the gain dividends and captain.
Table 1.1 Capitalization Growth Stocks, Growth Stocks
JCI and ISSUER
Years
1999 – 2009
|
Years
|
Stock
Emiten Grow
|
||
|
|
Capitalization
Growth Stocks
|
IHSG Grow
|
|
|
1999
|
1,57
|
0.70
|
-0.04
|
|
2000
|
-0.43
|
-0.38
|
0.04
|
|
2001
|
-0.08
|
-0.06
|
0.10
|
|
2002
|
0.12
|
0.08
|
-0.05
|
|
2003
|
0.72
|
0.63
|
0.01
|
|
2004
|
0.48
|
0.45
|
-0.01
|
|
2005
|
0.18
|
0.16
|
0.02
|
|
2006
|
0.56
|
0.55
|
0.02
|
|
2007
|
0.59
|
0.52
|
0.01
|
|
2008
|
-0.46
|
-0.51
|
0.14
|
|
2009
|
0.88
|
0.87
|
-0.01
|
Source: Warsono and BEI, processed
Nature of commodity stocks are also very sensitive
to changes in the political, economic, monetary, government policy, whether the
change is in abroad and within the country.
Therefore, each investor in the capital market, both
individual and institutional, should equip themselves with adequate skills in
analyzing stocks. The analysis of the adequacy of provision will reduce risk
and optimize return expectations for investors with good analysis can detect
stocks that worth to be chosen as a means of investment.
In analyzing and researching stocks at least known
there are two investment analysis on stocks most commonly known, namely
fundamental analysis (fundamental analysis) and technical analysis (technical
analysis).
Fundamental analysis is done by studying all the
relevant information relating to such shares and market conditions to try to
look at the business prospects and future financial development / finance
including the movement of the stock price itself. Learned fundamental
information including financial statements, and any account, industry data
(such as sales and order trends) as well as see the general economic and
financial conditions (such as the trend of interest rates). Thus, investors can
assess the performance of management companies through financial statements
issued.
With financial ratio analysis to know whether the
company is in good or bad condition. Good financial ratios will reflect the
financial condition is good as well, so that will affect the stock price and
financial performance will be measured by how much risk will be borne by the
investor. If the company's financial performance indicates good prospects, then
the shares will be in demand by investors and the price will increase. Good financial
performance will be appreciated by the market in the form of rising stock
prices. Conversely, bad news about the company's financial performance will be
followed by a decline in its stock price in the capital market.
In this study the authors take an object PT.
Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk. PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk
listed on the Stock Exchange with code PGAS on December 15, 2003, is on the
infrastructure industry, utilities and transportation, the energy sub-sector.
As a state-owned 55.22% shares owned by the state, the remaining 44.78% held by
the public. Its core business is the distribution and transmission of natural
gas to end users.
Based
on the background of the problem above, the writer wants to make a scientific writing titled "FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AS A
BASIS FOR DECISION TO INVEST IN. STATE GAS COMPANY, Tbk "
1.2 Problem Formulation
- Based
on the above background, the formulation of the authors expressed in this
paper are:
- 1.
How the company's financial performance in the PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara
Tbk?
- 2.
What is the intrinsic value of the outstanding shares in PT. Perusahaan
Gas Negara Tbk?
- 3.
Is the investment decision in PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk?
1.3 Limitations
To narrow the scope of
discussion, the authors limit the issues to be researched on the company's
financial statements using the liquidity ratio (Current Ratio, Quick Ratio,
Cash Ratio), the solvency ratio (Total Debt to Ratio, Total Debt to Equity
Ratio, and Time Interest Earned) , the ratio of activity (Total asset turnover,
inventory turnover, accounts receivable turnover), profitability ratios (ROE,
ROA, Earning power), and the ratio of the market (EPS, PER, dividend yield) at
PT. STATE GAS COMPANY, Tbk. To calculate the intrinsic value, fundamental
analysis used PER models. The data used in scientific writing is on the period
of December 31, 2008, December 31, 2009, December 31, 2010, and December 31 in
2011.
1.1 Purpose
of
Purpose of this is
1. To determine the financial
performance. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
2. To determine the intrinsic value
of the shares of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
3. To determine the investment
decision in the shares of PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
1.2 Benefits
of Research
The benefits
of Scientific Writing is as follows:
a.
Academic benefits
b.
Academic
benefits of scientific writing is to be used as reference materials and library
materials for readers who want to know the issuer's financial performance
through fundamental analysis.
c.
Practical
benefits
d. Practical benefits
of scientific writing is that it can be used as a reference for further
research on matters related to this research.
CHAPTER
II
THEORY
2.1 Capital Market
2.1.1 Definition Capital
Market
Capital markets by Suad
Husnan (2004:3), is the market for financial instruments share (or securities)
long-term could be traded, either in the form of debt or equity capital, both
published government, public aothorities, and private companies.
While understanding the
capital markets by Jogiyanto Hartono (2002:3), defines three terms related to
capital markets, namely the market, capital, and capital markets are as
follows, the Market is a situation where the actors (sellers and buyers) to
negotiate the exchange of a commodity or commodity group. Capital is used by a
company as a source of funds to carry out activities of the company. While the
stock market is a situation where buyers and sellers can negotiate for the
exchange of a commodity or group of commodities and commodities are exchanged
here is capital.
2.2 Stock
2.2.1 Definition
Stock
Stock is one of the financial instruments traded capital
market's most popular and most demanding people despite having a big risk.
Benefits to be derived from the investment is in the form of dividends other
than dividends in the form of benefit shareholders will have voting rights in
the general meeting of shareholders (AGM).
There are similarities of some sense of shares according
to the experts, according to Tjiptono Darmadji (2001:5), said that the stock
can be defined as a sign of ownership or possession of a person or entity in a
corporation or limited liability company. Form of stock is a piece of paper
stating that the owner of the paper is the owner of the company that issued the
securities.
Meanwhile, according to Bambang RJ (2001:240), the stock
is proof of taking part or participant in a limited liability company. For the
company received from the sale of shares will remain embedded in the company
during his lifetime, although the shareholders own it is not a permanent
plantings because every time shareholders can sell their shares.
2.2.2 Type - type of Stocks
1. Based Ownership
a.
Common Stock
According Tjiptono Darmadji
(2001:6), the shares of common stock is the most junior of the owner put the
distribution of dividends, and rights to company assets if the company is
liquidated. Meanwhile, according to Zaki Baridwan (2004:390), the shares of
common stock is callable done in order of most alhir in terms of the company is
liquidated so that the risk is greatest.
b.
Preffered Stock
While
preferred shares according to John (2001:251) is the form of bonds and shares
because the stock type has a fixed dividend payments on bonds resemble flowers,
but also do not have the maturity of such shares. Meanwhile, according to Zaki
Baridwan (2004:391) preferred shares are shares that have several advantages,
the advantages usually associated with the distribution of dividends or
distribution of assets upon liquidation.
According
Sawidji Atmojo (2000:89), one of the characteristics of common stock have the
right to dividends, but only preferred shares have dividend rights and have
first rights / dividend payment priority first. Of course this applies priority
when other shareholders are the holders of common stock, which was the
preference.
2.3 investment
2.3.1 Definition investment
According to Abdul Halim
(2005:2), the investment is essentially the placement of funds at this time
with the hope of future gain.
From the definition above it
can be concluded that the stock is channeling investment resources available
now to the future expected profits by placing money in the purchase of
securities or funds in the form of shares in the hope of getting additional or
specific advantages over the funds invested in the stock trading in the stock
exchange.
2.3.2
Advantages
and Disadvantages of Stock Investment
Basically there are two benefits to
the investors buy or hold shares, namely:
1. Dividend
I sharing of the benefits given by
the company issuing the shares on the company's income, dividends granted after
approval of the shareholders at the AGM. Dividends distributed to companies in
the form of cash devien meaning given to shareholders in the form of cash
dividends in the amount of dollars given to each stock or can be in the form of
a stock dividend means that every shareholder is given the dividend amount so
the number of shares of stock owned by investors increases with the division
The stock dividend.
2. Capital Gain
Capital gain is the difference
between the purchase price and the selling price, which the selling price is
higher than the purchase price, capital gains are formed in the presence of
trading activity in the secondary market.
Besides these advantages, the
shareholders also possible to obtain:
3. Shares Bonus
Bonus shares (if any) the company's shares
are distributed to shareholders are taken from the share premium, share premium
is the difference between the selling price of the nominal price of the shares
at the time the company initial public offering market.
While the losses that can occur in
investing in stocks, namely:
1. Not receive dividends
The Company will distribute
dividends if the company's operating profit. Thus the company can not
distribute dividends if the company suffered losses. Thus the profit potential
investors untukmendapatkan dividend is determined by the performance of the
company.
2. Capital Loss
In stock trading activity, investors
do not always get a capital gain or gains on shares are sold. There are times
when investors sell their shares lower price than the purchase price, so
investors had capital loss. In stock trading, sometimes an investor to avoid
the potential for greater losses as the stock price continues to decline, then
the investor is willing to sell their shares at a price lower than the purchase
price, the term is known as Cut Loss.
3. The company went bankrupt and
liquidated
If a company goes bankrupt, then the
course will impact directly to the shareholders of the company. In accordance
with the listing rules on the stock exchange. Under conditions of the company
liquidated, then pemeganng stock will receive a lower position than the
creditors or bondholders, and if there are new rest will be distributed to
shareholders.
4. Shares in delist from exchanges
(delisting)
Another risk faced by the investor
if shares of the company are removed from the stock exchange listing (delist).
Delist the company's shares on exchanges in general, due to the poor
performance of the company, for example, in a certain period of time has never
traded, a loss some years, not to distribute dividends consecutively for
several years and a variety of other conditions in accordance with the listing
rules on the exchange. There is also a company in delist out of the market with
the aim of Go Private, Go Private companies that do not harm investors because
the company issuing the stock did buy back the shares of which were published.
5. Shares in Suspend
If a stock is trading suspended or
dismissed by the stock exchange authorities. Thus investors can not sell their
shares until the shares are suspended revoked from suspend status. Suspend
usually takes place in such a short time in one trading session, 1 day trade,
but can also take place within the next few trading days. It causes suspend the
shares in a stock experiencing a tremendous surge in prices, a company
bankrupted by its creditors, or any other condition that requires authorities
suspend trading exchanges are then asked to confirm the other. Such that the
information is not yet clear the scene of speculation, if after obtained a
clear information, then the status of the stock suspension can be revoked by
the stock exchanges and can be traded again as before.
CHAPTER III
DISCUSSION
4.1 Object
Research
Research
object in this paper is PT.Perusahaan Gas State, Tbk is located at Jl. K.H.
Zainul Arifin No.. 20 Jakarta 11140 Indonesia. Tel: 021 633 4838, Fax: 021 633
3080, Website: http://www.pgn.co.id.
4.1.1
Company Profile
Based on
Government Regulation no. 19/1965 Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) to legal entities
which are entitled to do business independently with the business scope of
supply of gas and gas industry, especially to improve the lives of the general
public. PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (Persero) Tbk. The transmission business and
distribution of natural gas. Indonesian Government Ownership 56.97% 43.03%
public. May 13, 1965 date of establishment. Legal basis of establishment of PP
No.19/1965 Rp2.424.150.819.600. The company's listing on the stock exchange
have been listed on the Jakarta Stock Exchange and Surabaya Stock Exchange on
December 15, 2003 with the stock code on the stock: PGAS. Line of Business PGN
in accordance with the articles of association set out on 6 April 2011.
1. Planning, development and
business development downstream natural gas fields that include processing,
transport, storage and trade.
2. Planning, construction,
development, production, supply, transmission and distribution of artificial
gas (hydrocarbon gas).
3. In addition to the main business
activities, the Company may carry on business other supporting and related
direct or supporting the major business activities as regulated applicable
legislation.
4.1.2 Vision
and Mission
Vision
• Being a
world-class energy company in the utilization of natural gas.
Mission
• Increase
the value for the Company's stakeholders
via:
1. Strengthening the core business
in the areas of transport, trade of natural gas and development
2.
Development of gas processing business
3. Business development services
operations, maintenance and engineering related to oil and gas industry
4.
Profitisasi resources and assets of the Company to develop other business
4.1.3 Management Company
Board of
Commissioners
1.
Commissioner: Tengku Nathan Machmud
2.
Independent Commissioner: Nenny Miryani Saptadji
3.
Commissioner: Kardaya Warnika
4.
Commissioner: Kiagus Ahmad Badaruddin
5.
Commissioner: Ilyas Saad
Board of
Directors
1. Director:
Hendi Prio Santoso
2. Commercial Director: Michael
Baskoro Palwo Nugroho
3. Director
of Development: Bambang Banyudoyo
4. Finance
Director: M. Riza Pahlevi Tabrani
5. General Director: Djoko Pramod
6. Director
Non-executive branch: Sutikno
4.2 The
analysis of financial ratios of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk.
Analysis of
financial ratios for four years is a first step in this writing. By using the
existing data in the form of audited financial statements public accountant, it
can be seen several financial ratios for three years and be able to know the
financial condition of the company.
The purpose
of the method of analysis is to simplify the data so that it can be understood.
The analytical method used was a horizontal analysis is to conduct comparative
analysis of financial statements for a period that will be known to progress
from year to year. By comparing the ratios achieved with current ratios in the
past that can show whether the company's progress or setbacks. Development
company looks on trend (trend) from year to year, and to see the development of
the company will be able to make plans for his future.
In this
chapter the authors conducted an analysis of financial ratios of PT Perusahaan
Gas Negara Tbk with data sourced from the balance sheet and profit / loss for
the accounting period of four December 31, 2008 until December 31, 2011 the
author obtained from http://www . idx.co.id / and http://www.pgn.co.id .. As
for the balance sheet and profit / loss by the writer attached to the
attachment list.
4.2.1
Liquidity Ratio
Evaluating the company's ability to
meet short-term obligations.
4.2.1.1 Current Ratio (Current
Ratio)
The ratio is used to measure the
company's ability to pay short-term liabilities using current assets owned.
Current Assets
Current Ratio =
Current debt
Table 4.1
Current Ratio PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
Description 2008 2009 2010 2011
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Current
Assets
|
5.196.657.527.285
|
9.263.400.994.474
|
13.858.679.369.359
|
13.656.295.463.956
|
|
Current
debt
|
3.297.977.346.109
|
3.729.795.011.315
|
4.035.777.167.686
|
2.483.316.997.394
|
|
Current Ratio
|
1,57
|
2,49
|
3,44
|
5,50
|
|
|
157%
|
249%
|
344%
|
550%
|
Source: Data
processed
Analysis:
From the above calculation, any
current debts PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk amounting to Rp 1, in 2008 secured
by Rp. 1.57, in 2009 secured by current assets of Rp 2.49, in 2010 secured by
current assets 3.44 USD, USD in 2011 is secured by current assets 5.50.
From the above calculation, obtained
an average ratio of the resulting PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk amounting to
325% and it can be seen that in 2011 there was an increase in the ratio is
quite significantly by 206% from 2010 to 2011. The increase in the ratio of
mean PT Perusahaan Gas Negara is in a liquid condition, because the amount of
current assets that can be used to meet current liabilities even reach 2 (two)
times current liabilities.
4.2.1.2
Quick Ratio (Quick Ratio)
Is a ratio used to measure a
company's ability to pay short-term obligations using the more liquid assets.
Current
Assets - Inventories
Quick Ratio =
Current
debt
Table 4.2
Quick Ratio
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Current
Assets
|
5.196.657.527.285
|
9.263.400.994.474
|
13.858.679.369.359
|
13.656.295.463.956
|
|
Inventory
|
14.521.800.031
|
14.120.479.466
|
14.046.340.060
|
11.836.043.989
|
|
Current
debt
|
3.297.977.346.109
|
3.729.795.011.315
|
4.035.777.167.686
|
2.483.316.997.394
|
|
Quick Ratio
|
1,57
|
2,48
|
3,44
|
5,50
|
|
|
157%
|
248%
|
344%
|
550%
|
Source: Data
processed
Analysis:
Any current debts PT Perusahaan Gas
Negara Tbk amounting to Rp 1, in 2008 secured by Rp. 1.57, in 2009 secured by
current assets of Rp 2.48 and inventory, in 2010 secured by current assets of
Rp 3.44 and inventory, in 2011 secured by Rp 5.50 current assets and
inventories.
The above calculation, obtained an
average quick ratio resulting PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk amounting to
324.75%. From 2008 to 2009 resulting ratio increased by 91%, from the year 2009
to the year 2010 resulting ratio increased by 96%, while from 2010 to 2011
resulting ratio increased by 206%, and the mean results the ability of PT
Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk in meeting short-term obligations with current assets
very well.
4.2.1.3 Cash
Ratio
Cash ratio measures a company's
ability to meet short-term liabilities with cash and securities.
Cash + securities
Cash Ratio =
Current liabilities
Table 4.3
Cash Ratio
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Cash
|
3.499.801.390.503
|
6.593.237.069.338
|
11.065.594.698.455
|
10.356.369.383.888
|
|
Effects
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Current
debt
|
3.297.977.346.109
|
3.729.271.879.621
|
4.035.777.167.686
|
2.483.316.997.394
|
|
Cash Ratio
|
1,06
|
1,76
|
2,74
|
4,17
|
|
|
106%
|
176%
|
274%
|
417%
|
Source: Data
processed
Analysis:
Since there is no effect of the
company, then any current debts PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk amounting to Rp 1,
in 2008 is only guaranteed with Rp. 1.06 cash, the year 2009 is only guaranteed
with Rp 1.76 cash, secured in 2010 with Rp 2.74 cash, secured in 2011 to USD
4.17 cash.
From the above results, the
company's ability to provide cash to pay short-term obligations increased in
each year, although there was a decrease in cash but followed by a decrease in
the amount of current liabilities. From the calculation above, also obtained
the average cash ratio resulting PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk amounting to
243.25%. The results show the improvement that occurred in 2010 and 2011 are to
be secure, because it is above the average.
4.2.2
Solvency Ratio
This ratio
indicates the extent to which the company financed or difinansir by outsiders
or in other words to show the proportion of financial leverage on the use of
debt to finance corporate investment.
4.2.2.1
Total Debt to Total Capital Assets Ratio / Debt Ratio (Debt to Total Assets)
This ratio is the ratio between
current liabilities and long term debt and total assets are known. This ratio
shows how much a part of the overall assets dibelanjai by debt.
Total Debt
Total Debt to Ratio =
Total Assets
Table 4.4
Ratio of
total debt to PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Total Debt
|
17.480.499.661.543
|
15.892.626.383.617
|
16.986.476.547.117
|
13.791.733.833.710
|
|
Total
Assets
|
25.550.580.441.639
|
28.670.439.792.000
|
32.087.430.994.073
|
30.976.445.812.225
|
|
Debt Ratio
|
0,68
|
0,55
|
0,52
|
0,44
|
|
|
68%
|
55%
|
52%
|
44%
|
Source:
Data processed
Analysis:
The above
calculation, visible reduction in the ratio of four recent period in which the
decline occurred in the year 2011, amounting to Rp 0.44 corporate assets financed
by debt or capital from creditors. In the debt ratio, the lower the ratio, the
smaller enterprises financed from the company's debt is thus easy to obtain an
additional loan.
4.2.2.2
Total Debt to Equity Ratio (Debt to Equity)
A comparison of debt - debt and
equity in financing companies and demonstrate the ability of their own capital, the company to
meet all its obligations.
Total Debt
Total Debt to Equity Ratio =
Total Capital
Table 4.5
Total Debt
to Equity Ratio PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Total Debt
|
17.480.499.661.543
|
15.892.626.383.617
|
16.986.476.547.117
|
13.791.733.833.710
|
|
Total Capital
|
7.075.257.169.426
|
11.732.080.390.253
|
13.868.573.016.764
|
15.839.754.981.351
|
|
Debt Equity Ratio
|
2,47
|
1,35
|
1,22
|
0,87
|
|
|
247%
|
135%
|
122%
|
87%
|
Source:
Data processed
Analysis:
From the
above calculation, obtained an average debt equity ratio PT Perusahaan Gas
Negara Tbk amounting to 147.75%. Of the average figure, it can be said that in
2009 the company is in the safe position because the resulting ratio does not
exceed the average, ie 135%, in 2010 by 122% and 2011 by 87%, but the ratio calculation
results in 2008 exceed the average - average in the amount of 247%, but is
still said to be safe, due to the increased total debt was offset by an
increase in total equity capital. For bank (creditor) the greater the ratio the
more it will not be profitable because of the greater ratio borne by the
failures that may occur in the company. Conversely the lower the ratio the
higher the level of funding provided by the owners and the greater the security
limit for the borrower in the event of losses, or depreciation of the value of
assets. This ratio also indicates the feasibility and financial risk of the
company.
4.2.2.3 Time
Interest Earned
This ratio
measures the company's ability to meet the payment obligations of interest
expense using the company's operating profit (EBIT).
Operating Income
Time Interest Earned =
Total
interest expense year
Table 4.6
Time
Interest Earned PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Operating
profit
|
4.657.251.785.620
|
7.676.025.702.640
|
9.035.724.843.752
|
7.722.378.097.081
|
|
Total
Interest Expense Year
|
547.212.033.095
|
558.262.115.674
|
371.631.844.355
|
243.930.325.301
|
|
Time Interest
Earned
|
8,51
|
13,74
|
24,31
|
31,65
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
The ability of the average PT
Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk in paying annual interest expense over the last 4
years is equal to 19.55 times. The company's ability to pay the annual interest
expense has increased in the last 4 years, although in 2008 and in 2009 was
still below average - average, the difference in the ratio could mean that an
increase in the company's ability to pay the annual interest expense and can be
sized to obtain additional new loans from creditors.
4.2.3 Ratio
of Activity
This ratio is intended to measure
the effectiveness of the company in doing its resources.
4.2.3.1
Total Asset Turn Over
Total asset turnover measures the
efficiency of asset management companies to support the company's sales.
Net Sales
Total Asset Turn Over =
Average
- Average Assets
Table 4.7
Total Asset
Turn Over PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Net sales
|
12.793.848.602.673
|
18.024.278.937.448
|
19.765.716.397.448
|
19.567.407.240.330
|
|
Average
Assets
|
25.550.580.441.639
|
28.670.439.792.000
|
32.087.430.994.073
|
30.976.445.812.225
|
|
Total Asset Turn Over
|
0,50
|
0,62
|
0,61
|
0,63
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
Based on the calculation above
ratio, fund assets are embedded in the overall average - average in one year
rotating 0.50 times in 2008, in 2009 was 0.62 times, 0.61 times in 2010, and in
2011 spun as much as 0.63 times, or can be interpreted every dollar assets to
generate revenue during the year amounted to Rp. 0.50 in 2008, USD 0.62 in
2009, USD 0.61 in 2010, and in 2011 to Rp 0.63. From these results it can be
seen that the turnover rate tends to be stable.
4.2.3.2 Inventory
Turn Over
Inventory turnover measures the
speed of inventory turnover into cash.
Cost of Goods
Sold
Inventory turnover =
Stock
Table 4.8
Inventory
Turn Over PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Cost
of Goods Sold
|
5.227.443.734.194
|
7.219.634.820.761
|
7.223.570.218.717
|
7.793.750.922.430
|
|
Inventory
|
14.521.800.031
|
14.120.479.466
|
14.046.340.060
|
11.836.043.989
|
|
Inventory
Turn Over
|
360
|
511
|
514
|
658
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
Inventory turnover calculation
results of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk in 2008 is 360, which means that the
amount of inventory a company has spun many as 360 times, in 2009 is 511, which
means the amount of inventory a company has 511 times as much spin. In 2010
spins 514 times and 658 times in 2011 spins.
From the above calculation can also
be seen the length of the accounts receivable turnover in 2008 continued to spin
more slowly. This happens because of the increased number of HPP that are not
offset by the amount of inventory decreased from the previous year. With these
results the company can be said to work inefficiently or not productive and
stuff piled up inventory, this will lead to an investment in a low rate of
return.
4.2.3.3 Turn
Over Accounts Receivable (A / R Turn Over)
Receiveble account turnover measures
how quickly accounts receivable to be collected and converted into cash.
Net sales credit
Account Receiveble Turn Over =
Trade
receivables
Table 4.9
Accounts
Receivable Turnover PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Net
Sales (Credit)
|
12.793.848.602.673
|
18.024.278.937.525
|
19.765.716.397.448
|
19.567.407.340.330
|
|
Trade receivables
|
1.588.974.619.313
|
1.650.388.514.530
|
1.891.593.890.275
|
1.990.088.296.402
|
|
A/R
Turn Over
|
8,05
|
10,92
|
10,44
|
9,83
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
Of calculation, in 2008 average -
the average fund that is embedded in a rotating receivables 8.05 times, in 2009
the average fund receivables that are embedded in 10,92 spin times. Spinning in
2010 and 10.44 in 2011 times the speed of rotation of the receivables to be
9.83 times. Starting from the year 2008 which was said to collection of
accounts receivable management can be regarded as unsuccessful, while in 2009,
2010 and 2011 are considered successful because it exceeds the average rate of
9.81%. The higher this ratio shows that working capital accounts invested in
the lower (compared to the ratio of the previous year) and of course this
condition, the better for the company. Conversely the lower is the accounts
receivable turnover ratio provides an understanding of the quality and success
of the collection of accounts receivable
4.2.4
Profitability Ratios
Evaluate the ability of the company
to make a profit.
4.2.4.1
Return on Equity (ROE)
ROE shows rate of return (return)
generated on invested capital management shareholders, after the cut
obligations to creditors.
Net Profit After Tax
Return on Equity =
Total
shareholders' equity
Table 4.10
Return on
Equity (ROE) PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Net
Profit After Tax
|
633.859.683.713
|
6.229.043.496.319
|
6.239.361.270.479
|
5.933.063.233.665
|
|
Total
Shareholders' Equity
|
7.075.257.169.426
|
11.732.080.390.252
|
13.868.573.016.764
|
15.839.754.981.351
|
|
ROE
|
0,08
|
0,53
|
0,44
|
0,37
|
|
|
8%
|
53%
|
44%
|
37%
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
Based on the calculation of return
on equity (ROE) PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011 have
the understanding that any funds invested by the investor is able to generate a
net profit of Rp 0.08, Rp 0:53, 0:44 and Rp Rp or 0.37 per cent, respectively
in the 8% 53%, 44% and 37%. From the year 2008 to the year 2009 the company's
management showed a good performance due to the increase in the ratio of 45%,
but since the year 2009, 2010 and 2011 this ratio shows a downward trend every
year, especially in the third period, it indicates declining performance
management to maximize returns for shareholders.
4.2.4.2
Return on Assets (ROA)
ROA is used to measure the
effectiveness of the company in generating profits by exploiting its assets.
This ratio
can be calculated by the formula:
Net Profit After Tax
Return on Assets =
Average - Average Fixed
Assets
Table 4.11
Return on
Assets (ROA) PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Net Profit
After Tax
|
633.859.683.713
|
6.229.043.496.319
|
6.239.361.270.479
|
5.933.063.233.665
|
|
Average
Fixed Assets
|
25.550.580.441.639
|
28.670.439.792.000
|
32.087.430.994.073
|
30.976.445.812.225
|
|
ROA
|
0,24
|
0,21
|
0,19
|
0,19
|
|
|
24%
|
21%
|
19%
|
19%
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
The results of the 2008, 2009, 2010
and 2011 showed that each fund is invested in all assets capable of generating
a net profit of USD 0.24, USD 0.21, USD 0.19 and USD 0.19. Investment rate has
decreased from 2008 to 2009 and a decrease of 0.03 in 2009 to 0.02 in 2010.
Although the amount of the decrease is not very significant, only 1% per year,
but it is a great achievement for a company. Total assets in 2010 increased by
Rp 32.087 trillion, it is also accompanied by increased net profit of Rp 6.239
trillion.
4.2.4.3
Earning Power
Ability of capital invested in total
assets to generate profits for all investors. The high-low ratio gives an
indication of how far the efficient use of capital, and the ups and downs of
sales and expenses.
EBIT
Earning
Power =
Total Assets
Table 4.12
Earning
Power PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
EBIT
|
4.657.251.785.620
|
7.676.025.702.640
|
9.035.724.843.752
|
7.722.378.097.081
|
|
Total
Assets
|
25.550.580.441.639
|
28.618.528.893.254
|
32.087.430.994.073
|
30.976.445.812.225
|
|
Earning Power
|
0,18
|
0,26
|
0,28
|
0,24
|
|
|
18%
|
26%
|
28%
|
24%
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
Every single rupiah generate capital
gains for all investors Rp 0.18 in 2008, USD 0.26 in 2009, USD 0.28 in 2010 and
USD 0.24 in 2011. From these results the ability of capital invested in PT
Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk in total assets to generate profits for investors in
the average of the last 4 years was 24%.
4.2.5 Ratio
of Shares (Common Stock Ratio)
Evaluate the performance of the company through a share basis.
4.2.5.1
Earning per Share
EPS calculating net income earned
for each share invested. Shares is meant here is not including common stock and
preferred stock.
Net Profit After
Tax - Preferred Stock Dividends
Earning per Share =
Total Shares Issued
Table 4.13
Earning per
Share of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Net Profit After Tax
|
633.859.683.713
|
6.229.043.496.319
|
6.239.361.270.479
|
5.933.063.233.665
|
|
Shares Issued Total
|
22.967.185.965
|
24.241.508.196
|
24.241.508.196
|
24.241.508.196
|
|
EPS
|
27,59
|
256
|
257
|
244
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
Net income earned for each share
invested in 2008 was Rp 27.59 per share, then it can be seen that the magnitude
of the resulting company's net income rose the following year, then in 2009
earned a profit of Rp 256 per share, the increase is quite high at USD 228.41,
and in 2010 the company generated net income rose to Rp 257 in the year, but
declined in 2011 to Rp 244.
4.2.5.2
Price Earning Ratio
PER shows the ratio of stock price
to earnings. This ratio shows how much investors assess the price of the shares on a
multiple of earnings.
The market price per
share
PER =
EPS
Table 4:14
Price
Earning Ratio PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Market Price per Share
|
1860
|
3900
|
4425
|
3175
|
|
EPS
|
27,59
|
256
|
257
|
244
|
|
PER
|
67
|
15
|
17
|
12
|
Source: Data
processed
Analysis:
From the above ratio calculations,
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk will sell multiples of 67 times earnings in 2008,
15 times in 2009, 17 times in 2010, and decreased in 2011 to 12 times. Although
the views of the low PER of the company from year to year, shares of PT
Perusahaan Gas Negara is not exactly cheap.
Dividend yield is used to measure
the amount of dividends per share relative to the market price expressed as a
percentage.
Dividend
per Share
Dividend Yield =
Price
per Share
Table 4:15
Dividend
Yield PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
(In Rupiah)
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|
Dividend
per Share
|
34,2
|
154,20
|
154,44
|
10,87
|
|
Price per
Share
|
1860
|
3900
|
4425
|
3175
|
|
Dividen Yield
|
0,01
|
0,03
|
0,03
|
0,003
|
|
|
1%
|
3%
|
3%
|
0,3%
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
The amount of dividends per share
relative to market prices in 2008 by 1%, then increased in 2009 by 3%, in the
year 2010 at the rate remained stable at 3%. In 2011 the amount of dividends
per share relative to the market price fell 2.7% to only 0.3% due to the amount
of dividends distributed in 2011 fall and stock market prices in 2011 fell from
the previous year.
4.3 Summary
of Financial Ratios Calculation of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
Based on the calculation of the above
ratios, it can be summarized as follows.
Table 4:16
Summary
Calculation of Financial Ratios PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
The period
December 31 2008 to 2011
|
Description
|
2008
|
2009
|
2010
|
2011
|
|||
|
1. Liquidity Ratios
|
|||||||
|
1.1 Current Ratio
|
157%
|
249%
|
344%
|
550%
|
|||
|
2.1 Quick Ratio
|
157%
|
248%
|
344%
|
550%
|
|||
|
2.3 Cash Ratio
|
106%
|
176%
|
274%
|
417%
|
|||
|
2. Solvency Ratio
|
|||||||
|
2.1 Debt Ratio
|
68%
|
55%
|
52%
|
44%
|
|||
|
2.2 Debt To
Equity
|
247%
|
135%
|
122%
|
87%
|
|||
|
2.3 Time
Interest Earned
|
8,51 times
|
13,74 times
|
24,31 times
|
31,65 times
|
|||
|
3. Activity Ratio
|
|||||||
|
3.1 Total Asset Turn Over
|
0,50 times
|
0,62 times
|
0,61 times
|
0,63 times
|
|||
|
3.2
Inventory Turnover
|
360 times
|
511 times
|
514 times
|
658 times
|
|||
|
3.3 Account
Receivable Turnover
|
8,05 times
|
10,92 times
|
10,44 times
|
9,83 times
|
|||
|
4. Profitability Ratios
|
|||||||
|
4.1 ROE
|
8%
|
53%
|
44%
|
37%
|
|||
|
4.2 ROA
|
24%
|
21%
|
19%
|
19%
|
|||
|
4.3 Earning
Power
|
18%
|
26%
|
28%
|
24%
|
|||
|
5.
Shares Ratio
|
|||||||
|
5.1 EPS
|
Rp. 27,59
|
Rp. 256
|
Rp. 257
|
Rp. 244
|
|||
|
5.2 PER
|
Rp. 67
|
Rp. 15
|
Rp. 17
|
Rp. 12
|
|||
|
5.3 Dividen Yield
|
1%
|
3%
|
3%
|
0,3%
|
|||
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
From the calculation of liquidity
ratios, seen in the company's ability to meet its short term obligations
experiencing excellent growth. As seen in the calculation of the average quick
ratio resulting PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk amounting to 324.75%. In 2010 and
2011, the resulting ratio is above the average, and the result meant the
company's ability to meet short-term liabilities with current assets of certain
very good. Quick ratio used investors to see the company's ability to provide
liquidity tools to meet its short term obligations.
From the calculation of the solvency
ratio, the risk of loss faced by the company can be said to be low. In the debt
ratio, the higher this ratio the more debt funding. The above calculation, the
ratio of visible decline in 2008 of 0.86 or 68%, in 2009 which was 0.55 or 55%,
in 2010 that is equal to 0.52 or 52% and in 2011 dropped to 0.44 or 44 %. The
lower this ratio, the smaller enterprises financed from debt. The average debt
equity ratio PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk by 114%. Of the average figure, it
can be said that in 2011, the company is in safe position because the resulting
ratio does not exceed the average, that is equal to 147.75%. Time Interest
Earned PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk has increased sharply from 2008 to 2009,
2010 and 2011, which could mean that an increase in the company's ability to
pay the annual interest expense and can be sized to obtain additional new loans
from creditors.
Then when you see the results of the
calculation of activity ratios, PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk calculation Total
Asset Turn Over the period of 2008 to 2011, 0.50 times in 2008, in 2009 was
0.62 times, 0.61 times in 2010, and in 2011 spins 0.63 times as much, or can be
interpreted every dollar of assets during the year to generate revenue of Rp
0.50 in 2008, USD 0.62 in 2009, USD 0.61 in 2010, and in 2011 $ 0 , 63. From
these results it can be seen that the turnover rate tends to be stable.
Inventory turnover calculation
results of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk in 2008 is 360, which means that the
amount of inventory a company has spun many as 360 times. 2009 spins 511 times,
514 times in 2010 spins, and in 2011 spun 658 times as much. From the above
calculation can also be seen the length of the accounts receivable turnover in
2008 continues spinning faster and faster until 2011. This was due to an
increase in HPP also offset by an increase in inventory. The higher this ratio
it shows the company work more efficiently and illiquid stocks are good.
Results profitability ratio
calculation, based on the calculation of return on equity (ROE) PT Perusahaan
Gas Negara Tbk in 2008 and 2011 continued to decline which in 2008 was 8%, in
2009 by 53%, in 2010 by 44% and in 2011 by 37%.
Stock ratio, clearly visible from
the calculation of earnings per share of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk has
increased from 2008 which only reached Rp 27.59 to Rp 256 in 2009, and in 2010
an increase of USD 257 in 2010 but in the year 2011 decreased to Rp. 244. As
for the PER will be sold with labam multiples of 67 times in 2008 but decreased
in 2009 to 15 times, 17 times in 2010, and again decreased in 2011 to 12 times.
Although the views of the low PER of the company from year to year, shares of
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara is not exactly cheap.
4.4 Fundamental
Analysis Model
4.4.1 Model
Price Ratio (Price / Earning Ratio Model)
P = PER * Firm industry expected
earnings per share (EPS)
P = 20.56 * USD. 244
P = Rp. 5016.64
Table 4:17
Comparison
of Intrinsic Value with Market Value of Shares of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
|
Description
|
Intrinsic Value
|
Shares Market Price
|
Results
|
|
PER
|
5016,64
|
3175
|
Appreciated is too low (Undervalue)
|
Source: Data processed
Analysis:
Looking at the results of
calculations PER approach, the intrinsic value of the shares of PT Perusahaan
Gas Negara Tbk amounting to Rp. 5016.64 higher than the market price of Rp.
3175, it means shares of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk valued too low, then the
stock should be bought or held temporarily (buy or hold) in order to obtain
capital gains.
CHAPTER
IV
Closing
5.1 Conclusion
1. Based on the research and discussion presented in the
previous chapters, it can be concluded as follows:
2.
1.
Based on the calculation of the financial statements. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk
from 2008 to 2011, it can be concluded the performance of PT. Perusahaan Gas
Negara Tbk is good. Financial ratios calculation results showed a continuous
increase of the ratio of the average over the last 4 years, such as liquidity
ratios and activity ratios. Although in 2011 the company showed a decrease in
the ratio calculation results in some, such as solvency ratios, profitability
ratios and stock.
3.
2.
Based on the security analysis has been done based on the share price in 2011,
the intrinsic value of the shares of PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk seen from Rp
PER approach. 5016.64
4.
3.
Decisions taken on the outstanding shares in PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk is a
buy / hold in order to obtain capital gains. That's because the undervalued
stocks (undervalued) in the amount of Rp. 3175. In addition, the performance of
the company's growth prospects each year showed a favorable direction. Due to
factors other than a low stock price / cheap, the performance of the company is
also into the calculation of the investors to invest their funds before
5.2
Suggestions
Suggested, investors who do not own
shares of PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk to buy these shares (buy or hold) in
order to obtain capital gains if then the price back up, and it is advisable
for investors who already have a stake in PT. Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk to hold
such shares or add to the number of shares owned to earn higher profits.
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